
Voters in Poland will give their verdict on four years of populist government on Sunday, with the country’s ruling party expected to triumph again.
The right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party came to power in 2015 promising a heady mixture of social conservatism and increased spending on the welfare state.
In the intervening years PiS has been criticised at home and abroad for undermining the rule of law, including politicising the courts system – but a stream of criticism from Brussels and human rights watchdogs seems to have done little to dent their poll ratings at home.
All polls suggest PiS will increase its vote share on 2015, with one recent survey by Kantar showing them on 43 per cent, far ahead of the nearest opposition party on 28 per cent.
PiS benefits from a fractured opposition split into centre-right liberal, leftist, and agrarian blocs. There is practically no doubt that it will poll first in Sunday’s elections – the question is whether it will be able to win a majority.
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50/50 23 August 2019
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1/50 11 October 2019
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2/50 10 October 2019
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3/50 9 October 2019
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dpa/AFP/Getty
4/50 8 October 2019
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5/50 7 October 2019
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6/50 6 October 2019
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7/50 5 October 2019
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9/50 3 October 2019
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A gust of wind lifts the cassock of Pope Francis during the weekly general audience at St.Peter’s square in the Vatican
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11/50 1 October 2019
Protesters clash with an Iraqi riot police vehicle during a demonstration against state corruption and poor services in Baghdad
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A student protester throws a burning stick at riot police officers during a clash in Jakarta, Indonesia
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13/50 29 September 2019
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14/50 28 September 2019
A Japan fan smiles before the Japan v Ireland Rugby World Cup match in Shizuoka, Japan
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15/50 27 September 2019
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PA
16/50 26 September 2019
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AFP/Getty
17/50 25 September 2019
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18/50 24 September 2019
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19/50 23 September 2019
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20/50 22 September 2019
An anti-government protester sets a fire during a rally outside the Mong Kok police station in Hong Kong
Reuters
21/50 21 September 2019
New Zealand players perform the haka before their opening Rugby World Cup match against South Africa in Japan. The All Blacks secured a 23-13 victory over their rivals
AFP/Getty
22/50 20 September 2019
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23/50 19 September 2019
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AFP/Getty
24/50 18 September 2019
Two flamingos at Dresden Zoo in Germany
EPA
25/50 17 September 2019
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EPA
26/50 16 September 2019
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AP
27/50 15 September 2019
People paddle on a stand-up board during sunrise in a beach in Larnaca, Cyprus
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28/50 14 September 2019
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AFP/Getty
29/50 13 September 2019
Rescue workers on a boat rescue a person stranded inside a flooded tunnel after heavy floods in Pilar de la Horadada, Spain
Reuters
30/50 12 September 2019
Police officers try to control the crowd after members of the public were invited to view Robert Mugabe’s body as it lies in state at the Rufaro stadium in Harare, Zimbabwe
Reuters
31/50 11 September 2019
A US flag hangs from a steel girder, damaged in the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center at a memorial in Jersey City. It is the 18th anniversary of the attacks
AP
32/50 10 September 2019
Local actors dressed as ancient warriors re-enact a scene from the 7th century battle of Kerbala during a ceremony marking Ashura in Iraq
Reuters
33/50 9 September 2019
A firefighter assesses the fire spreading across land on Long Gully Road in the town of Drake, Australia. A number of homes have been destroyed by bushfires in New South Wales and Queensland
EPA
34/50 8 September 2019
Damaged homes after hurricane Dorian devastated Elbow Key Island in Hope Town, Bahamas. The hurricane hit the island chain as a category 5 storm and battered them for two days before moving north
Getty
35/50 7 September 2019
An artist performs on Tverskaya street during celebrations marking the 872nd anniversary of the city of Moscow
AFP/Getty
36/50 6 September 2019
Children play football next to a defaced portrait of Former Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe in Harare on the day he died, aged 95. The former leader was forced to resign in 2017, after a 37-year rule, whose early promise was eroded by economic turmoil, disputed elections and human rights violations, has died
AP
37/50 5 September 2019
Authorities work at the scene of a train crash in Yokohama, south of Tokyo. According to media reports, more than 30 people were injured after a train hit a track at a crossing
EPA
38/50 4 September 2019
A police office removes burning tires from the road, as protesters set up fires to block traffic along Airport Road in Abuja, Nigeria
Reuters
39/50 3 September 2019
A riot police officer throws a teargas canister as looters make off with goods from a store in Germiston, east of Johannesburg, South Africa. Police had earlier fired rubber bullets as they struggled to stop looters who targeted businesses as unrest broke out in several spots in and around the city
AP
40/50 2 September 2019
A boat off the island of Santa Cruz in California burns in the early hours of Monday morning. More than 30 people were on board the boat, which is thought to have been on a three-day diving trip
EPA
41/50 1 September 2019
Flowers are laid in a hole in a wall as people gather in the gym of a school, the scene of the hostage crisis, in memory of victims on the fifteenth anniversary of the tragedy in Beslan, North Ossetia region, Russia. More than 330 people, including 186 children, died as a result of the terrorist attack at the school
AP
42/50 31 August 2019
A man sits in front of riot officers during the rally ‘Calling One Hundred Thousands Christians Praying for Hong Kong Sinners’ in Hong Kong, China
EPA
43/50 30 August 2019
A migrant forces his way into the Spanish territory of Ceuta. Over 150 migrants made their way into Ceuta after storming a barbed-wire border fence with Morocco
AFP/Getty
44/50
A beagle jumps through hoops during a show at the Pet Expo Championship 2019 in Bangkok, Thailand. Although the four-day expo is primarily dog oriented it features a wide array of stalls catering to pet owners’ needs as well as showcasing a variety of animals including reptiles, birds, ferrets, and rabbits
EPA
45/50 28 August 2019
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AP
46/50 27 August 2019
Burning rubbles in the market of Bouake, central Ivory Coast, after a fire broke overnight
AFP/Getty
47/50 26 August 2019
French President Emmanuel Macron gestures as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, second from left, sits between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, left, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel as they take part in a meeting at the G7 Summit in Biarritz, France
The Canadian Press via AP
48/50 25 August 2019
A Brazillian Air Force jet drops water to fight a fire in the Amazon rainforest in the state of Rondonia, Brazil
EPA
49/50 24 August 2019
A police officer prepares to strike a protester as clashes erupt during a pro-democracy march in Hong Kong’s Kowloon Bay
AFP/Getty
50/50 23 August 2019
Oxfam activists in costumes depicting leaders of the G7 nations protest in Biarritz, France on the day before the summit is due to be held there
AFP/Getty
Pawel Zerka, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told The Independent that there could yet be an upset.
“Mobilisation of voters is the biggest unknown of these elections. On the face of it, the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party looks set to win at least 231 seats – an absolute majority – in the country’s lower legislative chamber, the Sejm,” he said.
“But at the same time, PiS supporters seem to be much less motivated to vote than Poles who back the opposition.”
One poll commissioned by the European Council on Foreign Relations in early September found that just 49 per cent of PiS supporters are committed to voting, compared with between 70 and 75 per cent for the two main opposition blocs – suggesting turnout could be a deciding factor.
The lack of enthusiasm for the ruling party despite their commanding lead also shows up in other figures. A poll conducted by Kantar at the beginning of October asked voters which scenario they preferred: an opposition victory, a PiS single-party government, or PiS having to rule with another party.
Just 34 per cent said they wanted PiS to govern alone, while 36 per cent said they wanted the opposition parties to win. Twenty-four per cent of voters said they preferred a PiS coalition with another party.
But the split opposition means PiS is likely to triumph. Mr Zerka said a majority for the incumbent ruling party was still “the most probable scenario” but that other results should not be ruled out.
“Rather than seeking a coalition partner, [Jaroslaw] Kaczynski’s party [Law and Justice] may then try to recruit from other parties the few parliamentarians it would need to form a stable majority,” said Mr Zerka.
“But, at the same time, opposition parties might get an opportunity to build a counter-alternative.”
An opposition coalition could be difficult to build, especially if the agrarian peasants’ party and their anti-system allies win enough votes to enter the parliament. Such a coalition would have to stretch from social and economic liberals, through economic leftists, to social conservatives.
The left-wingers are expected to return to the parliament for the first time in four years, after having been wiped out at the last election. Various left-of-centre parties have formed a single group in order to maximise their chances of winning seats.
The latest voting intention poll by Kantar has PiS and its allies on 43 per cent, the centre-right liberal Civic Platform on 28 per cent, and the left-of-centre Lewica on 13 per cent.
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